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NWS Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KDTX 110754
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

..DISCUSSION...

Cold frontal passage early this morning marks the leading edge of a
seasonably cool and dry air mass that will take residence over the
region through early Saturday. High pressure centered well to the
northwest over southern Manitoba will gradually expand southeast -
the gradient and healthy low-level lapse rates ensuring a light
north breeze persists today. Plenty of sunshine brings highs to the
70s to lower 80s and flow off the lake produces some boundary layer
cumulus during the afternoon. Clearing skies tonight allow for
favorable radiating conditions and should see lows dip well into the
50s. Some 40s certainly not out of the question at the typical
inland cool spots.

High pressure continues its push into the region on Friday as
midlevel height rises ensue with the departure of today`s trough.
Little change to the air mass offers nearly a carbon copy in terms
of temperature, apart from the Thumb where it will be several
degrees warmer thanks to a weaker gradient and weaker onshore flow.
Abundant sunshine gives way to mostly clear skies to start the
evening, but may see some increasing high clouds Friday night
downstream of an inbound disturbance/wave over the Upper Great Lakes.

This wave will pinch off the short-lived midlevel ridge over the
area, inducing an isentropic ascent response beginning midday
Saturday that brings an increasing chance of rain after a dry start
to the day. The nose of the LLJ will impinge on lower Michigan by
Saturday evening, offering decent moisture return and supporting
likely PoPs through Saturday night. Question remains how much
instability can actually develop this far north of the warm front
and whether we`ll see any thunder. Rain chances continue into Sunday
as additional shortwave energy spills in along the energetic
northwest flow. Slightly cooler than normal and at times unsettled
weather is expected to continue into next week as a broad troughing
pattern sets up over the northeastern CONUS.

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly flow holds through the day as high pressure drifts
southeast into the Great Lakes region, with sustained winds around
15 knots. Gusts stay at or below 20 knots as well, although onshore
flow does elevate wave heights to Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the day along the Lake Huron nearshore. Wave activity may
wane slightly later this evening, but another surge of northerly
wind tonight will bring higher waves back in and the Small Craft
Advisory has been extended through early Friday morning. Weakening
gradient and veering winds then allow waves to subside gradually
Friday morning, ushering in favorable marine conditions to end the
work week. Quiet conditions persist into the first half of the
weekend before the next disturbance and accompanying rain chances
arrive late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

AVIATION...

Frontal passage overnight will bring veering winds from westerly to
northerly into Thursday morning. A pocket of broken lower VFR
cu/strato-cu in the 4-6kft range in the immediate wake of the front
will settle south through the area early in the forecast. Northerly
flow will persist as high pressure builds into the area on Thursday
with some degree of diurnal cumulus (mainly sct) by midday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet overnight, then low
  by midday Thursday with additional diurnal development.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV/TF
AVIATION.....DG


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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion